Ethereum co-founder Joseph Lubin is confident that several 19b-4 applications for Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) filed by firms like BlackRock will be approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). However, he cautions that the public launch of these ETFs could be a more protracted process.
In an interview at DappCon in Berlin, Lubin stated, "These 19-b4's from the exchanges, I think that's as good as done." He believes that the SEC is under increasing pressure to adopt a more neutral stance as the U.S. presidential elections approach, given the growing number of voters holding digital assets.
Lubin expects the approval of Ether ETFs to be a "floodgate" of demand for the second-largest cryptocurrency, leading to a supply crunch. He anticipates a "pretty large amount of natural, pent-up pressure to purchase Ether" through the ETFs, which could be a "profound watershed moment" for the entire industry.
Several analysts share Lubin's optimism about the potential impact of Ether ETFs. Bloomberg's James Balchunas estimates that Ether ETFs could attract 10-15% of the assets of Bitcoin ETFs, which have accumulated over $35 billion in total assets under management (AUM)]. This would translate to inflows of around $3-5 billion for Ether ETFs.
Standard Chartered is even more bullish, predicting an estimated inflow of 2.39-9.15 million ETH, equivalent to $15-45 billion, in the first year of Ether ETF approval. The bank also projects Ether prices to maintain a 5.4% price ratio with Bitcoin, which could see BTC reach $150,000 by the end of 2024, implying an ETH price of $8,000[3]. For 2025, Standard Chartered estimates an even higher BTC price of $200,000, suggesting an ETH price of $14,000.
However, Lubin cautions that the public launch of these ETFs could face delays due to political factors. He suggests that representatives from Donald Trump's presidential campaign have been actively engaging with the crypto community for over two months, likely to formulate a pro-crypto strategy ahead of the elections.
Lubin also criticizes the SEC's approach under Chairman Gary Gensler, accusing the agency of creating uncertainty and overstepping its mandate to regulate securities by targeting technology and developers. In April, Consensys, the company Lubin leads as CEO, launched legal proceedings against the SEC, challenging what Lubin described as an undisclosed move to reclassify Ether as a security.
Despite the potential delays and political hurdles, Lubin remains optimistic about the long-term prospects of Ether ETFs. He believes their approval will be a significant milestone for the cryptocurrency market, providing institutional investors with a regulated and accessible way to gain exposure to Ethereum.
