According to Glassnode, "The current market structure is certainly comparable with the late-2018 bear market, however, does not yet have the macro trend reversal in profitability and demand inflow required for a sustainable uptrend."
Despite a recent relief rally, cryptocurrency analytics company Glassnode claims that Bitcoin (BTC) is still in the bear market.
According to the market intelligence company, on-chain metrics indicate that Bitcoin's recovery is still far away because a sell-off followed its brief price increase.
The adjusted SOPR (aSOPR), which measures the difference between the selling and buying prices of the leading cryptocurrency asset, indicates that investors may be trying to recoup their initial investments.
Bitcoin aSOPR continues to encounter significant resistance at the 1.0 break-even point, implying that BTC investors are reaping profits during bear market rallies and are selling coins at cost-basis to essentially "get their money back."
During a bull market, the supply of long-term Bitcoin investors, or those who have held their assets for more than 155 days, also tends to decline, but according to Glassnode, this is not the case right now, as shown by the Long-Term Holder Supply in Loss metric.
Only 193 out of 4421 trading days (4.4%) ended with greater BTC-denominated losses, meaning that the supply of Bitcoin held by long-term holders is still close to historical cycle highs.
This may indicate that the bear market seriously threatens LTH profitability.
According to a recent Glassnode newsletter, investors are not being drawn to Bitcoin's recent uptrend. The cryptocurrency asset doesn't see any drivers who can keep the rally going.
Glassnode says:
“The current market structure is certainly comparable with the late-2018 bear market, however, does not yet have the macro trend reversal in profitability and demand inflow required for a sustainable uptrend.
Therefore, the ongoing cycle bottom consolidation phase is most likely, as Bitcoin investors attempt to lay a firmer foundation, subject of course to the persistent uncertainty and unfavorable events of the macroeconomic backdrop.”
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