Crypto bettors on the prediction market Polymarket is currently giving a 17% chance that former U.S. President Donald Trump will be in jail before the 2024 presidential election. This assessment comes after Trump was found guilty on 34 felony counts in his hush-money trial.
The "Trump in jail before election day?" market on Polymarket now has almost $897,000 in bets placed. Bettors believe there is a 17% probability that Trump will end up in prison before November 5, 2024. This is a slight decrease from earlier in May, when the odds were estimated at 25%.
Polymarket is a blockchain-based prediction market that allows users to place binary bets on a wide range of events, from the approval of crypto funds to the likelihood of lost submarines being found. The platform has a track record of accurately predicting outcomes in high-profile cases, such as the length of Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao's prison sentence and the verdict in the criminal trial against FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried.
In Trump's hush-money trial, prosecutors accused the former president of falsifying business records in connection with hush-money payments made to retired porn star Stormy Daniels. According to Daniels, she and Trump had an affair in 2006, which Trump has denied. In the days before the 2016 election, Trump's then-attorney Michael Cohen allegedly paid Daniels $130,000 to buy her silence, with Trump later repaying Cohen. Prosecutors argued that Trump deliberately and illegally labeled the payments as "legal expenses" to conceal his motives.
If convicted, Trump faces probation or up to four years in prison. However, he is unlikely to go to prison until his appeals are exhausted. The crypto bettors on Polymarket seem to believe that while a conviction is likely, the chances of Trump being incarcerated before the 2024 election are relatively low.
It's important to note that while crypto betting markets can provide insights into public sentiment, they should not be considered definitive predictions of future events. Factors such as legal proceedings, appeals, and political considerations may ultimately determine whether Trump serves any jail time before the next presidential election.
In conclusion, crypto bettors on Polymarket are currently giving a 17% chance that former U.S. President Donald Trump will be in jail before the 2024 election, following his guilty verdict on 34 felony counts in the hush-money trial. The crypto betting community believes that even though a conviction seems likely, the likelihood of imprisonment before the election is relatively low. However, these odds are subject to change as the legal process unfolds and the 2024 election approaches.
