Bitcoin's price, currently hovering around $59,000, may see a significant shift if historical election year patterns hold true, according to cryptocurrency analysts.
Crypto analyst Matthew Hyland noted in an August 16 video that Bitcoin's recent extended consolidation, followed by a downturn below $50,000, mirrors the patterns seen during previous U.S. election years, such as 2012, 2016, and 2020.
"Bitcoin has seen the same sort of structure," Hyland explained. He highlighted that in August 2012, Bitcoin experienced a significant crash, followed by a slow recovery leading up to the election, before a drastic increase in price after the election.
"This sort of path is what I'm expecting. A little choppy, nothing too crazy, then probably October, November, we’ll move out of this range," Hyland added, predicting that Bitcoin’s price will likely stay within its current range for "a little bit longer."
As of now, Bitcoin is trading at $59,089, reflecting a 9.78% drop since July 18, according to CoinMarketCap data.
However, not all traders share Hyland’s optimism. Some believe there might be further downside before any significant recovery. "Personally, I think Bitcoin's price will be lower than its current price before the end of September," crypto trader Rager mentioned in an August 16 post on X (formerly Twitter). Rager anticipates a brief recovery towards the end of August, potentially coinciding with a broader market rebound, but warns of further challenges ahead.
Adding to the cautious sentiment, MN founder Michael van de Poppe warned that if Bitcoin loses the crucial $56,000 support level, it could face a retest at $48,000 or even dip to new lows. Similarly, Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, advised traders to wait for Bitcoin to drop into the low $40,000 range before making any significant market entries. "To ideally time the next bull market entry, we aim for Bitcoin prices to fall into the low 40,000s," Thielen wrote in an August 7 report.
The 2024 U.S. presidential election, scheduled for November 5, could play a pivotal role in Bitcoin's price trajectory, with many market watchers closely monitoring the asset's movements in the months ahead.
