Bitcoin’s recent dip to a six-month low of approximately $49,500 during the global market rout on August 5 may have marked a local bottom, aligning with historical trends observed in previous U.S. election years. As the November 2024 election approaches, featuring a high-stakes contest between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, analysts and traders are speculating that Bitcoin could be on the brink of a significant rally, potentially reaching new all-time highs.
Technical analyst SuperBro has highlighted a recurring pattern in Bitcoin’s price behavior during past U.S. election years. In 2012, 2016, and 2020, Bitcoin found its third-quarter lows around July or August, which were followed by strong upward momentum leading into and after the elections. This historical precedent has led to growing anticipation that Bitcoin may resume its uptrend in the coming months.
Adding to the bullish outlook is the “left-translated cycle” theory, which suggests that Bitcoin’s bullish cycles are beginning earlier and could peak sooner than in previous cycles. SuperBro points out that Bitcoin’s most recent peak occurred a month before its fourth halving in April 2024, an anomaly compared to past cycles where the peak typically followed the halving event. If this theory holds true, Bitcoin could start its ascent before traditional market participants expect, potentially hitting a new record high ahead of the election.
The upcoming election itself could further fuel speculative buying. Donald Trump’s positive stance on Bitcoin, coupled with potential regulatory changes under different administrations, is expected to drive increased interest in the cryptocurrency. Crypto betting service Polymarket has noted that Trump’s winning odds have improved, which may also contribute to Bitcoin’s upward momentum.
Onchain data further supports the possibility of a Bitcoin rally. According to Glassnode’s latest weekly report, long-term holders (LTHs) of Bitcoin have consistently locked in about $138 million in profit per day during the recent flat trend.
This steady profit-taking suggests that significant capital is entering the market daily, absorbing selling pressure and keeping Bitcoin’s price relatively stable despite a choppy environment. The realized profit/loss ratio, a key metric, has shown signs of decline from its peak, indicating that LTHs are beginning to reduce their profit-taking activities—a pattern that has historically preceded market uptrends.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s price has been trending inside a bull flag pattern since March, a formation that typically signals the continuation of a bullish trend. Should Bitcoin decisively break above the flag’s upper trendline, it could trigger a breakout targeting the $80,000 level.
As the U.S. election draws closer, all eyes will be on Bitcoin. If historical patterns and technical indicators are any guide, the cryptocurrency may be set for a new record high, catching many market participants off guard and solidifying its position as a key asset in the global financial landscape.
