Bitcoin ETFs Contribute to Increased Weekend Price Volatility: Kaiko Research

Bitcoin has become more susceptible to wild weekend volatility since the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), according to a recent report by Kaiko Research.
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August 13, 2024
Dean Fankhauser

Dean has an economics and startup background which led him to create Bitcompare. He primarly writes opinion pieces for Bitcompare. He's also been a guest on BBC World, and interviewed by The Guardian and many other publications.

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Bitcoin has become more susceptible to wild weekend volatility since the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), according to a recent report by Kaiko Research. The crypto analytics firm noted that Bitcoin's liquidity has become more concentrated on weekdays, particularly in BTC-US dollar markets, leading to heightened risks of sharp weekend price swings during market stress.

Liquidity Fragmentation and Price Discrepancies

During the Bitcoin sell-off on Aug. 5, when the cryptocurrency dipped below $50,000, Kaiko observed "liquidity fragmentation" in the crypto markets, resulting in price discrepancies across exchanges, particularly affecting smaller, less liquid exchanges. Bitcoin moved 14% between US market close on Friday, Aug. 2, to its reopening on Monday, Aug. 5 — "similar to major sell-offs since 2020".

Increased Sell-Off Volatility

The latest sell-off saw Bitcoin's price move almost as much as during the US banking crisis in early 2023. A $100,000 Bitcoin sell order during the Aug. 5 sell-off would have produced significant price slippage depending on the exchange and trading pair. Zaif's Bitcoin/yen pair saw slippage of up to 5.53%, while KuCoin's BTC/euro pair reached nearly 5.5%. US dollar stablecoin pairs on BitMEX and Binance.

US saw slippage reach up to 4% on the day.

The Impact of Bitcoin ETFs

The 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US have drawn in $17.3 billion in net inflows since January and currently hold about 4.7% of Bitcoin's supply, giving them a reasonable hold over the cryptocurrency's liquidity. This increased institutional activity has contributed to the concentration of Bitcoin trading on weekdays, leading to the heightened risk of weekend price volatility.

Bitcoin ETFs Contribute to Increased Weekend Price Volatility: Kaiko Research

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Bitcoin has become more susceptible to wild weekend volatility since the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), according to a recent report by Kaiko Research. The crypto analytics firm noted that Bitcoin's liquidity has become more concentrated on weekdays, particularly in BTC-US dollar markets, leading to heightened risks of sharp weekend price swings during market stress.

Liquidity Fragmentation and Price Discrepancies

During the Bitcoin sell-off on Aug. 5, when the cryptocurrency dipped below $50,000, Kaiko observed "liquidity fragmentation" in the crypto markets, resulting in price discrepancies across exchanges, particularly affecting smaller, less liquid exchanges. Bitcoin moved 14% between US market close on Friday, Aug. 2, to its reopening on Monday, Aug. 5 — "similar to major sell-offs since 2020".

Increased Sell-Off Volatility

The latest sell-off saw Bitcoin's price move almost as much as during the US banking crisis in early 2023. A $100,000 Bitcoin sell order during the Aug. 5 sell-off would have produced significant price slippage depending on the exchange and trading pair. Zaif's Bitcoin/yen pair saw slippage of up to 5.53%, while KuCoin's BTC/euro pair reached nearly 5.5%. US dollar stablecoin pairs on BitMEX and Binance.

US saw slippage reach up to 4% on the day.

The Impact of Bitcoin ETFs

The 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US have drawn in $17.3 billion in net inflows since January and currently hold about 4.7% of Bitcoin's supply, giving them a reasonable hold over the cryptocurrency's liquidity. This increased institutional activity has contributed to the concentration of Bitcoin trading on weekdays, leading to the heightened risk of weekend price volatility.

Dean Fankhauser

Dean has an economics and startup background which led him to create Bitcompare. He primarly writes opinion pieces for Bitcompare. He's also been a guest on BBC World, and interviewed by The Guardian and many other publications.

Bitcoin has become more susceptible to wild weekend volatility since the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), according to a recent report by Kaiko Research. The crypto analytics firm noted that Bitcoin's liquidity has become more concentrated on weekdays, particularly in BTC-US dollar markets, leading to heightened risks of sharp weekend price swings during market stress.

Liquidity Fragmentation and Price Discrepancies

During the Bitcoin sell-off on Aug. 5, when the cryptocurrency dipped below $50,000, Kaiko observed "liquidity fragmentation" in the crypto markets, resulting in price discrepancies across exchanges, particularly affecting smaller, less liquid exchanges. Bitcoin moved 14% between US market close on Friday, Aug. 2, to its reopening on Monday, Aug. 5 — "similar to major sell-offs since 2020".

Increased Sell-Off Volatility

The latest sell-off saw Bitcoin's price move almost as much as during the US banking crisis in early 2023. A $100,000 Bitcoin sell order during the Aug. 5 sell-off would have produced significant price slippage depending on the exchange and trading pair. Zaif's Bitcoin/yen pair saw slippage of up to 5.53%, while KuCoin's BTC/euro pair reached nearly 5.5%. US dollar stablecoin pairs on BitMEX and Binance.

US saw slippage reach up to 4% on the day.

The Impact of Bitcoin ETFs

The 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US have drawn in $17.3 billion in net inflows since January and currently hold about 4.7% of Bitcoin's supply, giving them a reasonable hold over the cryptocurrency's liquidity. This increased institutional activity has contributed to the concentration of Bitcoin trading on weekdays, leading to the heightened risk of weekend price volatility.

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Dean Fankhauser